top of page
Writer's pictureBruin Sports Analytics
2 days ago9 min read

Scoring Big: Analyzing the Growth of the NWSL

By: Ella Hinkle and Taylor Fenton



Introduction


Since the establishment of the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) in 2012, the league has taken off. Initially made up of just 8 teams, the NWSL now boasts 14 highly competitive teams– as of the recent addition of two more teams this season– with concrete plans to continue to expand as early as 2026. 


Women’s sports continue to grow at an incredible rate, and the NWSL has been no exception. In just over a decade, the league has practically doubled in size. These expansion teams lead to the questions: How are net-new expansion teams in the NWSL a reflection of increasing interest in the sport of women’s soccer? How can we measure this increase in interest?


Throughout this article, we will analyze the driving factors behind recent interest increases across the NWSL, how we can measure this increase in interest, and how we anticipate these changes to be reflected in the future. Our data stems from many credible online sources including the NWSL website, ESPN, The New York Times, and more.


Definitions


  • Interest: measured based on factors including attendance, viewership, social media engagement rates, and league expansion

  • Net-new expansion teams: new teams added to a sports league after its initial founding due to increased demand in a new area

    • Expansion teams in the NWSL consist of 7 of the 14 teams. Those teams, and the years they began play, are as follows: Houston Dash (2014), Orlando Pride (2016), Racing Louisville FC (2021), Angel City FC (2022), San Diego Wave FC (2022), Utah Royals (2024), Bay FC (2024)

  • Driving factors: standings, ambition, and online expansion of broadcast services 


We will analyze changes in different metrics of interest, comparing the league’s current level of engagement with engagement since its founding in 2012. Through a variety of visualizations, we will consider what driving factors are behind these changes in engagement.


Analysis


Attendance and Engagement Growth 

What are the attendance and social media trends for the NWSL? How are net-new expansion teams reflective of the increased growth of the NWSL, particularly increased attendance and engagement?


From 2013 to 2023, the NWSL has seen an overall increase in attendance. Despite a drop in attendance during the 2021 season due to Covid-19, total season attendance (the total number of people who attended games across the whole season and all teams) spiked most recently during 2024 at approximately 2 million people. This is a 444% increase from the league’s first season back in 2013, which had around 450,000 people. Between 2021 and 2024, five additional expansion teams were added, along with the return of Kansas City Current. These five net-new expansion teams provided NWSL fans more opportunities to attend games, hence the spike from 2021-2024.


The following graph highlights the percent changes in game attendance by team between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Collectively, game attendance for the league increased by 32% from 2022 to 2023. SD Wave FC, one of the newest expansion teams, had the greatest increase in game attendance, with an increase of 137%. Only two teams saw a decrease in game attendance, one of which was an expansion team, Racing Louisville FC. 10 out of the 12 teams saw increased game attendance from 2022 to 2023, continuing the trend of growing attendance throughout the NWSL.


Average attendance fluctuated greatly across the league from team to team during the 2023 season. SD Wave FC made up 16% of total league attendance in 2023, while the Chicago Red Stars accounted for only 3.8% of total league attendance. SD Wave FC and Angel City FC, the teams making up the two largest proportions of league attendance in 2023, were both net-new expansion teams from 2022. Houston Dash, added in 2014, represented the smallest percentage of league attendance from a net-new expansion team at 4.1%. This widespread distribution in attendance suggests that even as the league grows and continues to expand, some teams may struggle to keep pace and draw in fans.


We define open engagement rate as the total number of interactions social media content receives divided by the total number of followers, as a percentage. We define audience growth rate as the percentage increase in total number of followers. 


In 2020, five NWSL clubs made the top 10 professional sports teams with the highest cross-platform engagement rates, according to data from Stone Ward, a marketing agency. The highest overall engagement rate belonged to Angel City FC, the newest expansion team at the time. The next two highest teams, Portland Thorns FC and Courage FC appearing at 4 and 5 on the overall list, had shot up the rankings after a blockbuster trade, when US women’s national team defender Crystal Dunn was sent from North Carolina to Portland. 


NWSL clubs were represented in these rankings again in 2021, with Houston Dash and Chicago Red Stars continuing to display strong fan engagement on their socials. The NWSL boasts a higher open engagement rate than the MLB, NFL, MLS, NHL, and NBA at 0.40%. The next closest league, the MLB, has an engagement rate of 0.33%. League-wide, the NWSL has grown its following by 198% from 2023 to 2024. 


These graphs display the high social media engagement rates and audience growth rates of teams across the NWSL, as well as the league as a whole. These high engagement rates, especially in comparison to other professional sports leagues, suggest a large fan investment in the continued growth of the league. With much of the data being from 2020 and 2021, it is indicative that the investment of supporters is not a new thing, but rather a continuation of something that has been driving the league forward over the past few years.



Driving Factors

Our Data and analysis indicates that attendance and engagement are on the rise for the NWSL. What are the driving factors behind the increase in attendance and engagement?


Online viewership has also surged within the last four seasons of the NWSL league. In 2017, A&E agreed to a three-year deal to broadcast regular season matches on their cable network, Lifetime. A&E pulled out of the deal one year early, allowing the NWSL to sign another three-year media deal with CBS Sports and Twitch in 2020. This deal allowed the NWSL to broadcast more matches than in previous seasons and gave fans easier access to games, hence the increase in championship viewership from 2019 to 2022. 2022 saw a 68% increase in coverage hours for women’s professional sports, and viewership trends followed this increased accessibility to women’s sports. However, in 2023, viewership dipped by 11%, yet remained higher than 2021 viewership. The 2024 championship match was recently broadcast on CBS with 967,900 views – the league’s most-viewed match in history. 


Overall, online interest in the NWSL has grown over the past few years primarily due to better exposure on streaming platforms.


Recall from earlier that it can be noted that attendance varied greatly by team. To what extent does winning success play a role in fan attendance? Intuitively, high winning success likely correlates with high fan turnout, and vice versa. The following chart ranks teams based on 2023 standings in comparison to their average attendance. SD Wave FC, the top-ranked team in 2023, had the largest average attendance that season at 20,718 fans, while the Chicago Red Stars, the worst-ranked team, had the lowest average attendance of 4,848 fans. However, while NC Courage finished 3rd that season, they only managed to bring in 5,384 supporters on average, the second-worst average attendance in the league that year. This data reflects a relatively strong correlation between successful teams and large fan turnouts, but there are certainly exceptions to that, like NC Courage.


The following scatterplot is based on the data from an ESPN article by Jeff Kassouf, a journalist who has been covering women’s soccer since 2018. He founded The Equalizer, the leading website dedicated exclusively to comprehensive women's soccer coverage in North America. In his article, he analyzes the ambitiousness of NWSL teams based on a system by Grant Wahl, who created his popular "Ambition Rankings" to measure the MLS teams’ drive. The six factors that went into Kaussouf’s rankings were the following:

1. Willingness to spend on players 

2. Willingness to spend on stadium and training facilities 

3. Creativity, innovation, and willingness to try something new 

4. Clear long-term vision for the club 

5. Staffing investment, on and off  the field

6. Local media market relevance and attendance

 The graph illustrates that teams with higher overall scores, meaning higher overall ambition, tend to contribute to higher season attendance. There is a 62% correlation between these two factors. This moderately strong correlation illustrates that the efforts made by the clubs impact season attendance. Teams like Angel City and SD Wave FC placed 1st and 2nd (tied with KC Current) and placed 2nd and 1st for total attendance during the 2023 season, respectively. On the other hand, teams like the Chicago Red Stars and Houston Dash hold low scores and the 14th and 13th lowest attendances.


However, it is not indicative by what amount more ambition will increase a team’s attendance because of the variability, with teams like OL Reign and Portland Thorns FC having high attendances yet lower scores and vice versa.


Effects: How has the rise in interest in the NWSL affected the revenue of teams and players?


From this increase in attendance, the NWSL has seen changes in other areas. Currently, the 14 NWSL clubs are worth a total of $1.46 billion, with each team seeing a positive increase in their valuations from 2023. The average increase in valuation from 2023 to 2024 was 60.6%. The lowest percent change in valuation was the Chicago Red Stars at 34%, and the highest was Kansas City Current at 141%. This data shows that the overall increase in interest in the league affects the valuations of the team. (The data excludes Bay FC and Utah Royals since 2024 was their first year in the league.)


Growing interest also impacts NWSL teams’ revenues. There is a 68% correlation between season attendance and revenue, suggesting that as attendance increases, revenue also tends to increase.  At the end of the 2024 season, most teams with high attendance generated high revenues, like the expansion teams Angel City and SD Wave. Teams with low season attendances, like NC Courage or OL Reign, had lower revenues. However, KC Current, with only an average season attendance, had the highest revenue at the end of the season. Higher attendance may attract more sponsors and more ticketing and merchandise sales, improving financial stability and enabling teams to invest in better players, marketing, and facilities, which both improve their team and attract more attendees. Overall, the average increase in percent change in revenue from 2023 to 2024 is 60.6%, indicating that revenue is on the rise for teams across the NWSL.


Additionally, players’ contracts are reflections of increased interest in the NWSL. In connection with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the club salary cap– how much a team can spend on players– will be raised from $3.3 million in 2025 to $5.1 million in 2030, with the minimum annual salary for players nearly doubling, from $48,500 in 2025 to $82,500 in 2030. For comparison, in 2013 when the NWSL was established, the salary cap was a mere $200,000, and the minimum salary was only $6,000 annually. This rapid growth in revenue earned by players is a reflection of increased revenue from television deals and sponsorships as a result of increased fan support, allowing teams to attract better talent and enhance competitiveness to attract more fans.



Conclusion and Limitations


The NWSL has continued to grow as a league since its establishment in 2012. The league’s total season attendance and online viewership have increased significantly. Individually, most teams also see consistent rises in attendance. Expansion teams, like San Diego Wave FC and Angel City FC, have not only contributed to the league’s success but also serve as a testament to its growing popularity and fan base. However, attendance proportions and revenue vary greatly among the NWSL teams, highlighting that certain locations in the US attract a substantial amount of interest for the NWSL, while others do not. These teams need to look at ways to invest and innovate in their teams to keep pace with the rest of the league. 


Interest in NWSL’s teams appears to be driven by many compounding factors from rank to ambition. This results in explosive financial growth for the league. As the league expands, interest will continue to grow, leading to more financial incentives and opportunities. Currently, the league is deciding on a location for a new 2026 team and is analyzing factors that will set the team up for success both on and off the field.


With the lack of data about the NWSL, much of our data was collected via web scraping, and we couldn’t analyze all the factors we originally wanted. We wanted to look into media broadcast hours and yearly sponsorship data, yet we could not find enough data. Additionally, many of the driving factors blend with effects or quantifiable aspects of league growth. Hopefully, with the growth of the NWSL, there will be more easily accessible and available data in the future to make more accurate and deep insights into the growth of the league.













Sources:
12 views

Commentaires

bottom of page