Why Steph Curry Is Arguably the Most Valuable Offensive Player Ever

By: Sai Karthik Magham and Michael Zheng

Introduction

Stephen Curry is one of the most prolific players in NBA history. His offensive brilliance has not only redefined the role of a point guard but has also transformed the Golden State Warriors into a dynasty His unparalleled shooting range, combined with his exceptional off-ball movement, merges to fuel a much more powerful offense with him on the floor. More than just a shooter, Curry’s presence elevates his teammates and shifts the balance of the game in ways arguably no player before him has achieved. This article delves into Curry’s direct and indirect impact, backed by data, to explore what sets him apart from the rest making him into one of the most valuable offensive players in basketball history.

Section 1: How Much Does Steph Curry Impact the Warriors’ Offensive Success?

Steph Curry is generally hailed as the central piece to the Warriors’ dynasty. However, there is debate as to what extent his impact spearheads the Warriors’ offensive success, especially whether he or Kevin Durant had greater impact from 2016-17 to 2018-19. First, to examine the extent of his impact, we decided to analyze the Warriors’ success in games with Steph Curry and without Steph Curry since 2012-13, using metrics such as team PPG, FG%, 3P%, TS% (True Shooting percentage), Win %, and Point Differential. The graph below demonstrates this:

The chart speaks for itself. One staggering metric is that the Warriors’ win percentage skyrockets from less than 40% when Curry doesn’t play to over 70% when he does play, illustrating his impact on winning. Additionally, PPG, FG%, 3P%, and TS% all go up considerably when Curry suits up.

Next, we are going to compare Curry’s impact on the Warriors’ win-loss record compared to the other three stars of the Warriors’ dynasty: Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green. Here are the graphs:

In all of the graphs, the Warriors’ record with Curry and without the other co-star is better than without Curry and with the other co-star, especially when comparing Curry to Durant and Green. This stat tells all you need to know about the Warriors’ success: During the KD era, the Warriors were 27-4 with Curry and without Durant, but just 23-17 with Durant and without Curry. There is a clear distinction between being better vs. being more valuable. Many argue that Durant was the better player, which is a fair claim, but it is clear that Curry was ultimately the more valuable player for the Warriors from 2016-17 to 2018-19.

Section 2: Analyzing Curry’s Direct Impact

There is no doubt that Curry has been an offensive force on the court, as he is consistently above average in his offensive capabilities. To display this we will use his True Shooting Percentage (TS%) which measures a player's shooting efficiency by taking into account field goals, free throws, and three-pointers. This takes into account all the types of points and shots that are made, giving us an accurate representation of his offensive ability around the court.

In this diagram we are able to see Curry’s TS% average compared to the league average, and over the years we are able to see he has always been able to perform at a much higher offensive level than other players in league, demonstrating his direct impact on the game. Curry’s explosive shooting efficiency compared to league average accounts for significantly more points scored for the Warriors compared to if he were replaced by just an average player, illustrating the direct impact of his scoring ability.

Another way we have looked at Curry’s direct impact on the game is through the metric of offensive real plus-minus. ESPN’s offensive real plus-minus is defined as a player's estimated on-court impact on team offensive performance, measured in points scored per 100 offensive possessions.

The graph above shows his direct impact on the court, and the yellow circles demonstrate seasons in which he finished number one in offensive real plus-minus. From his early years he has been able to increase his plus-minus score and from 2013 to 2021 has remained as the player with the highest offensive impact score, with the margins between first and second being incredibly large as mentioned in the graph above. From his unanimous MVP 2015-16 season, he scored a whopping 65% higher offensive real plus-minus rating than the next-highest player, Westbrook.

The data proves that what Steph does on the court in terms of his scoring and impact is far more extraordinary than the average player. The points he scores and the volume in which is able to do it makes him one of the most directly impactful offensive players in the game.

Section 3: Analyzing Curry’s Indirect Impact

Curry’s indirect impact on the Warriors is why Curry’s value is underrated, because it is difficult to fully grasp for the casual fan. Curry’s value can’t be quantified by basic stats such as points, rebounds, assists, as the indirect impact of his mere presence extends beyond the post-game box score. To look at this, we are going to look at the difference between Curry’s teammates’ eFG% (effective field goal percentage) with him on the court vs when he is on the bench:

It is clear that Curry’s teammates shoot significantly better when is on the floor vs when he is on the bench. For example, Kevin Durant’s eFG% was 8% better in the regular season and 8.6% better in the postseason when Curry was on the floor vs when Curry was on the bench. Another staggering metric is that Andrew Wiggins shoots a whopping 18% better eFG% in the playoffs with Curry on the floor. All of this illustrates that Curry’s presence indirectly makes his teammates better. This is explained by the fact that Curry’s gravity pulls opposing defenses’ attention towards him, which opens up much easier opportunities for his teammates to score, hence why their eFG% goes up so much.

Next, we are going to use NBA’s tracking data to examine what types of shots Curry makes easier for his teammates. To analyze this, we are going to compare the Warriors’ FG% on different types of shots from 2019-20, when Curry was injured, to 2020-21, when Curry returned from his injury.

Based on the graph, we see that the Warriors’ FG% improves on all of the four types of shots shown. We also see that the most improvement came on Drives and Paint Touches. This highlights that Curry draws defensive attention to the perimeter and the three-point line, which opens up opportunities for his teammates to get to the rim and score in the interior.

Section 4: Comparison to All-Time Greats

How does Curry’s value compare to his peers? First off, to examine this, one of the most important metrics that measures a player’s value is their On-off +/- per 100 possessions, which was introduced in 1996. On-off +/- is the team’s +/- when the player is on the floor subtracted by the team’s +/- when the player is on the bench. We decided to compare Curry’s On-off +/- in his prime compared to arguably the seven other greatest players post-1996, with “prime” being defined as a player’s peak seven-year stretch. It’s important to note that our definition of “prime” isn’t statistically calculated but rather judged based on general consensus and MVP voting, which could lead to some bias. Here is the chart:

Based on the chart, Curry’s on-off +/- in his prime of +16.1 is clearly the highest among these eight superstars, with LeBron’s prime coming in second at +13.5. The graph demonstrates that Curry’s sheer value to the Warriors in his prime was unmatched by any of his contemporaries and underscores how underrated his true value is.

Another way to chart offensive value is by looking at the offensive rating of a team in games where the star plays vs in games where the star doesn’t play. For this metric, we compared Curry to arguably the seven greatest players since 1980, based on their seven-year primes as done in the previous example.

Based on the graph, of these eight all-time greats, Curry has the second-highest offensive rating improvement when he plays vs. when he doesn’t play, only slightly behind LeBron (8.0 vs 9.3). His value outshines Michael Jordan, Kobe, and Magic, and his offensive rating improvement is more than double that of Larry Bird, Shaq, and Kevin Durant.

Even though many of the players on the graph are generally placed higher than Curry in consensus all-time rankings, the data says otherwise, as Curry’s value supersedes that of many of the greatest players in history. Thus, it’s more than reasonable to say that Curry’s place in history is underrated and that we should reevaluate where he should rank amongst the greats of NBA history. This also demonstrates that we should reevaluate how we should rank players all-time in general, emphasizing more importance on true value and advanced metrics rather than just counting accolades and shiny trophies.

Conclusion:

Ultimately, it is clear that Curry has always been the de-facto engine of the Warriors’ offense. His ability to make his teammates better, draw attention from opposing defenses, and score efficiently all coalesce to make him a player whose offensive value is truly one-of-one. When comparing him to all-time greats of both the past and present, his value clearly reigns supreme over a vast majority of other legends. Just purely in terms of offensive value, he and LeBron James are arguably the two most valuable offensive players ever and are essentially neck-and-neck. In the end, our analysis demonstrates that Curry is undoubtedly one of the most valuable offensive weapons the game has ever seen.