By: Brayden Yee
Introduction:
In cricket, specifically test match cricket, the better part of the last decade has been dominated by what is known as the “Fab Four” batters of Steve Smith (Aus), Joe Root (Eng), Virat Kohli (Ind), and Kane Williamson (NZL). Predicted by Martin Crowe back in 2014, the call has been praised for its accuracy, as each player has stood as the number one ranked test batsman, has captained their country in tests, and each are in the top 4 for active players test centuries, far surpassing the 5th closest. Perhaps more importantly, it is noted that each of these batters are a part of the same generation, with Smith, Kohli, and Williamson coming through in the 2008 class of u19 batters, and Root coming through in the 2010 class. While cricket fans such as myself have enjoyed watching these players for years, there is no doubt that age is catching up, and retirement is undoubtedly coming up for them. This then begs the question: will there be another fab four or anything similar?
Vocabulary:
Before going any further, I find it necessary to explain some vocabulary/context of cricket, as this will be an analysis specifically on test cricket, and will use much of the language of the game.
Test cricket: Test cricket is the original form of cricket, known for its slower pace of play and longer length compared to many other sports in general. Each match can last up to 5 days and has each team play 2 separate innings where all the players bat, contrasting it to the newer “limited overs” forms of the game where each team only bats once.
Innings: Similar to baseball, it's the time when a team is performing a certain role on the field whether it be batting or fielding. An “innings” when talking about a specific player batting refers to how many runs they scored before they got out (assuming they get out).
Batting Average: The total amount of runs scored / the number of times the batter got out.
Partnership: The total amount of runs scored between two batters before one got out, thus “breaking” the partnership.
Allrounder: A player who can bat and bowl, a batting allrounder indicates a player is more skilled with the bat, while a bowling allrounder indicates more skill bowling.
Stumps: A player can be out bowled or LBW because they “weren’t protecting” their stumps. The stumps are a set of 3 pieces of wood behind the batting player, if they are hit, the batter is out.
LBW: Abbreviation of “leg before wicket”, it means that if the ball hits the body before the bat, and the umpire believes that, had the player not been there to block, the ball would’ve hit the stumps, the batter is given out.
Off break spin: From the perspective of a right hander, it is a ball that turns “into” the batter. Typically it is more difficult for left handed players to face this. Off break spin tends to utilize the fingers in order to generate the spin.
Left arm unorthodox spin: A ball that is bowled by a left hander that turns in the same direction as a right arm off break bowler. Similar to an off break delivery, it is harder for left handed players to face this. Left arm unorthodox spin tends to utilize the wrist in order to generate the spin.
Left arm orthodox spin. A ball that is bowled by a left hander that turns away from a right handed batter. It works similarly to an off break, where the spin is generated from the fingers, but the ball turns the other way as it is bowled with the left hand instead of the right.
Criteria/factors:
Going into this, there will be some ground rules for predicting the next generation of great batters. Each of the “new generation” batters will have to be below a certain age, in the original prediction of the fab four, Crowe marked the ages of 24-32 as being the peak years as a batter, as such, the cutoff will be the age of 26, where batters will no longer be considered if they are older. A more fluid metric will be the age difference between the batters, but preferably they will be within 3 years of all batters who are considered. Outside factors and longevity will also be included for context.
As for the metrics that will be used, it will include: overall batting average, as well as overall average compared to the team.
Candidates:
Test cricket is played between 12 countries, but it unfortunately hasn’t gained major traction among a few countries such as Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, and Ireland, with the West Indies test team also having major struggles for the past decade, and Bangladesh not having many breakthrough batters in the world of test cricket in the last couple of years. This leaves the nations of Australia, England, South Africa, New Zealand, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In each of these countries, there is one stand out candidate except for India who has 2. They will be briefly covered now.
Cameron Green:
Cameron Green is a 25 year old batting allrounder from Australia. He has typically batted as a part of the lower middle order, typically in position 6, but has shown his ability to move up the order when needed. He has shown batting maturity when needed, including putting up a 116 run partnership with bowler Josh Hazlewood in a match against New Zealand earlier this year. Perhaps the only blemish to Green’s resume is his chronic kidney disease which will likely cut his career short.
Harry Brook:
Harry Brook is a 25 year old batter from England known for his attacking play in a strategy known as Bazball. Brook is known for his variety of different shots as well as his leadership abilities, already captaining the limited overs team, and being earmarked as a future captain of England’s test team.
Tristan Stubbs:
Tristan Stubbs is a 24 year old South African batter perhaps better known for his talent in the limited overs formats of the game. Still though he has shown his potential in test matches scoring 2 centuries in his 11 test innings, and averaging over 50 in first class cricket.
Rachin Ravindra:
Rachin Ravindra is a 25 year old batting allrounder from New Zealand. While he started his test career rather slowly, batting in the lower order, he has since solidified his position in the top and middle order.
Shubman Gill:
Shubman Gill is a 25 year old batter from India. Gill, unlike the others previously mentioned, started out as an opening batter, struggling. He has since been shifted down the order to the number 3 position, finding much more success.
Yashasvi Jaiswal:
Yashasvi Jaiswal is a 22 year old batter from India. Along with being the youngest player on the list, he has only batted as an opener in his test career. Jaiswal has also had one of the shortest careers so far, only being a part of the international setup for around a year.
Abdullah Shafique:
Abdullah Shafique is a 25 year old batter from Pakistan. He along with Jaiswal are the only openers on the list, and has found moderate success there, though has been fairly quiet in recent times.
Kamindu Mendis:
Kamindu Mendis is a 26 year old allrounder from Sri Lanka. While he has played a limited number of test matches, he has found great success, with scores of at least 50 in all but one of his matches.
Preliminary stats, filtering out batters/reasoning behind it:
To truly analyze who may be the once in a generation batters similar to the current fab four, it may be useful to know some preliminary stats about them. Below will be the current batting averages of each player as of December 3rd 2024, the timeline of when each of them started playing, and the number of innings each player has played.
Timeline of test career:
Before diving into a deeper statistical analysis, it would be helpful to remove some batters from consideration. This includes their stats not keeping up with the other batters, outside factors, or a low amount of data being more indicative of current form rather than the potential to be an all time great. The last point is especially important because it has been seen in multiple batters in the past few years. Players such as Devon Conway and Marnus Labuschagne had dream starts to their careers, but in recent years their averages have plummeted.
As a result the following players will be removed: Tristan Stubbs, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Cameron Green, Kamindu Mendis, and Abdullah Shafique. Stubbs and Jaiswal were removed from the list due to their relative new experience to test cricket, each playing for only around a year. Mendis was removed in a similar manner for his lack of test innings, while Shafique was removed for his lower average. Cameron Green has a unique reason for his removal, along with his lower overall batting average, his kidney disease is extremely likely to significantly shorten his playing career. Even at the age of 25 he has had to miss multiple matches because of complications around it.
This leaves us with 3 remaining batters, Shubman Gill, Rachin Ravindra, and Harry Brook. While it may be right to question whether Gill or Ravindra are worthy of being put on this list, due to their similar batting average to a player like Green or Shafique, the first thing to take into consideration is that they have not batted at their current position during their beginning of their careers. Gill opened in 15 matches before being moved to number 3, while Ravindra played at number 7 before being moved up to 4. When taking into account these movements up in the order and filtering it properly, the new averages are as followed:
Personal average alone also doesn't paint the full picture, as the average can be brought up when the pitch is extremely batter friendly, and likewise be brought down when it is very bowler friendly. As such, I believed it to be necessary to compare each player's average to the rest of the team.
In this chart it can be seen that Gill averages roughly 10 more than the average Indian player, while Brook and Ravindra average about 22 more. While it may look bad for Shubman Gill, it has to be noted that he plays for a team that is considered to be the best in the world right now, so his comparative average suffers because of it. New Zealand notably has a very low average overall, possibly due to there being less talented batters, or harder surfaces to bat on, while Brook is playing for a team that has been struggling to find extremely consistent options in the middle order.
Another important aspect that goes into the making of a great player is struggles, and how they overcome it. Shubman Gill has struggled the most of the three, specifically at protecting his stumps. He has been out bowled or LBW in nearly 32% of deliveries, on average players are out bowled of LBW 34% of the time. Rachin Ravindra also has a problem at protecting his stumps, being out bowled or LBW in 45% of his innings. Specifically, Ravindra appears to be weak against right arm spin, as seen in the recent series against India where he was dismissed by right arm spin ⅘ times, the one time he was not, it was to left arm unorthodox spin, which turns the same way as right arm off break bowler. Ravindra being a left handed batter may play a role in this, as it is noted that it is harder to face off break or left arm unorthodox bowling as a left hander. Harry Brook’s biggest weakness is similar to Ravindra, with it being left arm spin, which he averages only 33 against. Each of these batsmen have proven that they can step up when it matters, and each have been noted as being potential future captains for their sides. The only question is around their struggles and what they can do to overcome them.
Terrific Three?
Now to bring us back to our original question: can this group of Gill, Ravindra, and Brook be considered a new generation of fab four batters? In this case, it is hard to tell, but if I had to pinpoint a few batters from the newer generation who would be the future stars of world cricket, they would be the three mentioned above. Each player was marked from a young age as a potential future star for their team, and each player has shown a hunger for success in test cricket. Each player also exhibits struggles in portions of their game, but if and how they overcome it will prove who will leave their mark on the sport.
Sources:
Comentarios